Season Predictions

     At long last, Opening Day is in three days. Well, I guess it isn't technically Opening Day, but the baseball season will get underway with the Tokyo Series. I've always found it weird that they have their international series so early and then have the teams who played in that series participate in more Spring Training before the season starts for everybody. 

    Anyway, it's the time of year when I make my predictions for the oncoming MLB season. Of course, once I publicize them I'll be utterly and completely wrong, but it's fun to do it anyway. 

    I put a form up on the blog a little while ago, and between that and emailing it to some friends, I got 29 responses (way more than I expected), and I will integrate these into my predictions. Before we begin, I would like to say that sometimes my predictions seem a little bit odd, but sometimes the odd prediction feels right. Now that that's out of the way, why don't we start with division winners?

AL West: Houston Astros (31% consensus, tied first with the Rangers)
    It pains me a lot to say it, but I think the Astros are going to come away with the division again. The AL West isn't a particularly good division, but the Astros still seem in control. I would love to see the Rangers win it -- they have made many more strides to improve their team than the Astros -- but they're probably underdogs in the division. The more I think about it, the more I think the Rangers are going to take the division. I was really close to changing the guess, but I'm sticking with it, even though both my gut and my heart disagree with me.

AL Central: Detroit Tigers (55.2% consensus, first place)
    I do really like to say this one. I have been following and rooting for the Tigers for a little bit and was stoked to see their magical run in 2024. And they've gotten better this year, with signings like Jack Flaherty (really burned the Dodgers on that trade), Gleyber Torres, and Tommy Kahnle. Man, this team is going places.

AL East: New York Yankees (72.4% consensus, first place)
    They lost Juan Soto. They just acquired Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt, as well as a few others. I really hope Goldschmidt can rebound and end his career on a high note. I'm not particularly liking the AL East opponent's chances to take the division, but I can see the Orioles or Red Sox possibly taking it.

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers (93.1% consensus, first place)
    Well duh. The D-Backs will probably be decent, and the Giants could possibly be decent. The Padres will likely be good, but the Dodgers are ridiculously good. They've had one of the greatest off-seasons in baseball history. None of the other teams in the division stand a ghost of a chance against them. I don't want to be too much of a hater. I mean, they're the ones willing to spend the money, and few other teams are. It's just annoying to see all these epic off-season additions when you're not a fan. 

NL Central: Chicago Cubs (24.1% consensus, second place)
    I've been rooting for the Cubs for so long, and it looks like they may have their chance this year. The Brewers, who have been in control of the division for the last few years, have lost some valuable pieces, most notably Willy Adames. Yet the consensus was still in their favor, with 41.4% of answers predicting them to hold the division. We'll see. 

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies (24.1% consensus, third place)
    This was a hard one because of the three headliners of the division: Phillies, Braves, and Mets, who have all gotten better in the off-season. The Mets did sign Juan Soto, but the starting pitching still isn't there for me, and the Phillies line-up is still stacked. It also helps that they have Jesus Luzardo now. The Braves took about 48% of the consensus, and the Mets about 28%. This surprised me a little bit.

    Now I will move on to the second portion of my predictions for the year, which is the awards earned after the season.

 AL Rookie of the Year: Roman Anthony OF, BOS (20.7% consensus, second place)
    I don't know as much about the rookies as I would like, but Anthony is ranked #2 on MLB's Top 100 Prospects list. Looking at his minor league stats, Anthony looks like the real deal. He was a career minor league slash of .284/.398/.474 and is coming off a really nice year in 2024. He's giving a strong showing in spring as well, as he hunts for that Opening Day roster spot. The highest percentage of votes went to the 'Unsure' option at over 50%.

NL Rookie of the Year: Dylan Crews OF, WSH (20.7% consensus, third place)
    It would make all logical sense for me to predict Roki Sasaki, and it's probably the correct decision (second-most voted behind 'Unsure'), but when I thought about it, I couldn't not go with Crews. I just have a feeling about him. Though his 2024 debut wasn't too shiny, he did have his bright spots, and is currently slashing .357/.455/.429 in spring. He's going places. 

AL Cy Young Award: Tarik Skubal, DET (not on form)
    For some reason I left Cy Young and MVP off the poll.
    Tarik Skubal was nuts last season. He won the triple crown, and doesn't seem ready to stop yet, as he'll try to lead the Tigers on another playoff run. What some people don't understand is that he's a completely new pitcher since his time from 2021-2023. The mechanics have been improved as well as a new pitch mix (new as of 2023) that allows him to dominate. He's got the heart and the talent to pull off another incredible season.

NL Cy Young Award: Paul Skenes, PIT (not on form)
    Paul Skenes had a 1.96 ERA in 2024. I don't expect numbers quite that insane to repeat, but I still see Skenes as a dominant force on the mound. He's added a cutter and two-seam to his already impressive arsenal this off-season - it'll be fun to see how those pitches work against MLB hitters.

AL MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. SS, 3B, KC (not on form)
    I was one of those weird people who thought Witt should have won the MVP over Aaron Judge. Bobby Witt is just so talented at everything he does at a difficult position (shortstop). It's either going to be Witt or Judge. And I'm guessing Witt.

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani DH, P, LAD (not on form)
    He hits, and now he pitches again. Need I say more? The only thing not going for him is that he won last year and maybe the voters won't want a repeat? Probably not. Shohei's the man.

    And finally, I saved this one for last: World Series prediction. It's always fun (yet unpredictable) to predict a World Series in advance. Took a quick look on Sportsbook to see what the projections were.

World Series Matchup: Dodgers vs. Tigers (7% consensus)
    The surprising bit here is obviously the Tigers. But personally, I love what they have done to their team this off-season, and think they have a really solid squad that can take them to the Fall Classic. I don't know what I was thinking when I made these predictions before, but this one just felt right. Now, if I had to guess who won, I'd say Dodgers in six games.

    Well, those are my predictions for the upcoming season. Let me know in the comments what you think of my predictions and what y'all predict to happen. Good luck to your teams, thank you for reading, and happy collecting!