That doubleheader between the Braves and Mets was ridiculous. In an attempt to save Chris Sale and Max Fried, Spencer Schwellenbach got the ball for the Braves against Tylor Megill of the Mets.
Schwellenbach threw a gem; he went 7+ innings, giving up just four hits and a run (inherited runner) while punching out 5. He left the game in the eighth inning with a 3-0 lead, only to see that dashed in one of the most embarrassing relief performance I've ever seen. The Atlanta pen gave up five runs in the inning, plus the lone inherited runner from Schwellebach scored. That man needs a raise.
Then the team came back, scoring four in the bottom of the eighth inning. Pierce Johnson came on in the top of the ninth with a 7-6 lead before giving up a single to Starling Marte and a bomb to Francisco Lindor, and the Braves would fall 8-7.
So now the Mets are in the playoffs, and there's no point starting Sean Manaea or Luis Severino in the second game. So they started Joey Lucchesi, junkballer and inventer of the 'churve'. Meanwhile, the Braves needed to fill in for Chris Sale, who was dealing with back spasms. Grant Holmes came to hill, and excelled, firing four scoreless innings. The Braves won 3-0, and Reynaldo Lopez got a hold, something you'd expect from last year, but not 2024.
Now that that's through, we have the seeds for the National League, and I can complete my predictions. And you know how I said yesterday that this post would be shorter? Well, I unintentionally lied, but here we are. Let's take a look at the seedings, shall we?
1: Los Angeles Dodgers
2: Philadelphia Phillies
3: Milwaukee Brewers
4: San Diego Padres
5: Atlanta Braves
6: New York Mets
The Dodgers and Phillies will be getting the byes.
Brewers vs. Mets
I'll start with the third division winner. The Brewers have a decent offense. Obviously the loss of Christian Yelich hurts, but nonetheless the team is slashing .248/.326/.403 (5th, 3rd and 7th in the league respectively). The power numbers aren't amazing, but the offense is definitely there. As far as pitching is concerned, they are second in the league with a 3.65 ERA. Though they don't really have any aces, the Brew Crew is having solid seasons out of Freddy Peralta (3.68) and Tobias Myers (3.00). Colin Rea has been good for the most part, and Aaron Civale has a 3.53 ERA since coming over at the trade deadline. What may be the story for the Brewers this season, and possibly what saves them in the postseason, is the relief staff. Trevor Megill (brother of Tylor), Jared Koenig, Joel Payamps and Devin Williams have all been very good, and there are some hidden treasures that can be used across October. None of this even talks of the elite defense of the team, which will surely come in handy.
Now for the Mets. They are just a good team. They aren't outstanding at anything. The offense is good - fourth most in the league in home runs at 207 - but their collective slash line is .246/.319/.415, which is a little bit better than the Brewers. The pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA, with no exceptional starters at the head, the best being Sean Manaea, who sits at a 12-6 record and 3.47 ERA. But I don't know that I trust the 4.44 ERA of 2023 and 4.96 mark of 2022. I guess we need to see. Their bullpen is very mediocre. Edwin Diaz and Reed Garret are having decent years out of the pen, but all in all it's not great.
Based on this analysis, I think I'm going to have to guess the Brewers moving on. I think they have a team built well enough to potentially win the World Series, although with the star power of some of these teams, I'm not entirely sure how likely that is.
Padres vs. Braves
Starting with the offense of the Padres. They have the highest batting average in the National League at .263, and that's ridiculous! They also have the most hits in the league (1456), a .324 OBP (5th) and .420 slugging percentage (4th). Assuming that the team is going with a four man rotation in the playoffs, they'll be starting either Michael King, Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish or Joe Musgrove every game, which is likely the best starting rotation in the National League (for the playoffs). The Padres bullpen is also solid, with guys like Robert Suarez, Tanner Scott, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada and Jason Adam all having great years. Amazing what this team has been able to accomplish without Juan Soto or Josh Hader who left after last year.
The Braves just barely got into the playoffs, but managed to grab the fifth seed anyway. The team has been plagued by injuries all year, losing Spencer Strider after just nine innings and two starts, losing Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies (who is back with the club) and Austin Riley. Nonetheless, the offense has been decent, hitting 213 home runs, which is second in the league, and slashing ..243/.309/.415. And you know how I said the Padres may have the best postseason rotation in the NL? Well, I may have lied actually. The Braves as a team have the best ERA in the National League (tied best in the MLB) at 3.49, and the top four starters are Chris Sale, Max Fried, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach, all of whom are having really good years. But Chris Sale may be out the whole of the Wild Card series due to back spasms, and so Charlie Morton may see a few starts in this his last big-league season.
These teams seem to be fairly well matched. Honestly, I think the loss of Chris Sale may be the decider in this series. It also hurts that the Braves need to play today when they had a doubleheader yesterday, which quite possibly rends Joe Jimenez and Raisel Iglesias out for today, and Spencer Schwellenbach out. I think that might be what kills them. I think the Padres take this one.
Assuming that all of my predictions are correct, we would have matchups in the NLDS of:
Dodgers vs. Padres
Phillies vs. Brewers
Dodgers vs. Padres
I've already gone over the Padres, so I'll just analyze the Dodgers in this one. The Dodgers have the most homers in the NL at 233, and the best slash line at .258/.335/.446. This is definitely an extremely scary offense headed by Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, and Mookie Betts. Their pitching staff is their weak point, and this is due to injuries by Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone and Clayton Kershaw. Right now it looks like their four man rotation would consist of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty and Landon Knack, which is rather unimpressive. Walker Buehler has been straight-up bad, which comes as a bit of a surprise to me, and Knack has less than 70 big-league innings. Obviously Flaherty and Yamamoto are very good. Though they don't have a closer set in stone, the team has plenty of options for late inning work between Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson.
Something that bugs me is that the Dodgers can never seem to bring it all together in the postseason. Maybe Shohei can change that, but I don't know. The Padres have a team that could beat the Dodgers; in fact, I think they'd have the best shot of it of all the NL playoff squads. They beat the team last year in the NLDS too. I think the pitching injuries might do the Dodgers in, and I would guess that the Padres take the series (maybe now would be a good time to mention that all opinions are property of me?).
Phillies vs. Brewers
Again, I've already been over the Brewers. The Phillies have one of the best offenses in the league, with a team slash of .257/.325/.425. They have Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm, who are all having good years. The Phils have 198 home runs, fifth in the league. The team is fourth in the league with a 3.85 ERA, and the four man rotation of the team would be Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Christopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez, another very good rotation. Their bullpen is decent. Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm and Calos Estevez have been good all year, but Jose Alvarez and Jose Ruiz have been inconsistent.
Though I really like what the Brewers bring to the table, I think that both the offense and rotation of Philadelphia are going to beat them in the series.
NLCS: Phillies vs. Padres
Didn't these teams meet last year? Both of these teams play very well together, and have very similar strengths. The ERAs of the two teams are almost identical, and the offenses have their strengths. I like the bullpen of the Padres more, though the Phillies also have a good pen. I think I'm going to guess the Padres on this one. I think that they have the team to beat the odds and take out both the Dodgers and Phillies.
World Series: Yankees vs. Padres
If all of my predictions are correct (well, I guess not all of the have to be correct), the Yankees will be facing off with the Padres in the World Series. The Yankees would have the home field advantage. I like the top five or six in the Yankees lineup, though last three are a bit of a weak link. I like the rotation and bullpen of the Padres staff, but it will be difficult for any team to contain Judge and Soto. This is gutsy, but I think I'm going to predict a Padres World Series. The team is clutch, have a very good pitching staff, and I think will be able to contain most of the Yankees lineup (of course with the exceptions of Judge and Soto).
Well, that'll do it for my playoff predictions. I have the Padres winning it, but I also have a whole bunch of upsets. Let me know what y'all think and who you predict to win it all. I'll get back to my regular posts soon; I have a lot to do with the blog, but the playoffs are enveloping me a little bit.
Y'all have a great week, good luck to your teams, and happy collecting!
I would also like to mention the deaths of Pete Rose and the other celebrities (and all) who passed away this week. I don't want to draw away from this with the advent of the 2024 playoffs. May they rest in peace.
